Climate policy and instruments for geothermal energy development in Kenya

Abstract

Kenya’s contribution to global emission is only 0.10%. The country’s development blue print Vision 2030 projects 10% economic growth and that 3% of that growth will be affected by climate change, hence limiting the desired double digit growth. Climate change impact is felt across several sectors with diverse social, economic and environmental consequences. In the power sector, hydropower generation which was the main source of generation is affected by the impact of recurrent droughts. This paper discusses the interventions that Kenya has put in place to accelerate development of geothermal energy as the most stable indigenous form of energy to spur economic development. Climate change mitigation and adaptation, requires that energy resources of the proper type and magnitude be available. The paper further discusses how these interventions have increased geothermal energy contribution to national and international climate change response. The current installed capacity of geothermal power is about 600 MW and being exploited within the Olkaria Geothermal fields. Geothermal energy contributes up to 51% of energy generated and used by Kenyans because it is operated on base load compared to other sources. Kenya has registered four geothermal clean development mechanism (CDM) projects.

The registered projects are at different stages of monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) with an estimated total annual emission reduction potential of 1.6 million tCO2e per year as per the Project Design Document (the actual emission reduction are based on annual power plant performance). The Second national Communication 2015 and National Climate Change Action Plan (2013-2017) develop low carbon development options for electricity supply. In their analysis, geothermal power has by far the largest abatement potential of 14 MtCO2e per year in 2030 equivalent to 5 GW, with other technologies varying between 0.5 and 1.4 MtCO2e. The Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC or NDC) target takes a conservative approach and puts geothermal contribution at 2.7 GW (factoring the risks and barriers associated with geothermal energy development and indeed other sectors). Geothermal energy is expected to abate more than 75% of GHG from power generation/supply sector. Unexploited opportunity also exists for geothermal energy in adaptation as presented in the Lindal diagram and the GeoAdaM conceptual framework in this paper. Opportunities exist for accelerating geothermal energy through climate finance.